Monthly Note

Hello!

Already August! Summer goes too fast. I hope everyone is enjoying summer and staying cool. I know NY has been beastly hot for my clients there. Idaho has seemed not too bad.

It’s been a long time since I’ve been able to say... “Markets are up!!” I can’t promise that we’ve hit the bottom or turned the corner on this market drop, but markets have been steadily up since about mid-June. We’re in the midst of a very important earning season, which was expected to be very bad. It has been less than ideal, but it’s not a disaster, and markets are holding through it. That’s a good sign that the market is already pricing in a recession in the short term.

The last inflation numbers were up again, but most analysts seem to agree that it was probably the peak, more good news. You wouldn’t know here in Idaho, but nationwide gas is down substantially from it’s high. Idaho is at the end of the supply chain, so we see price movements later than everyone else.

The housing market is definitely starting to get hurt by the rise in interest rates. No one is predicting a “collapse”, but I do expect substantial change in the housing markets. That will probably be regional and may act dramatically different across the country.

This stormy market is far from over, but sunshine seems to be poking through the clouds. Try not to think about it too much and enjoy the rest of summer.

Opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Because of their narrow focus, investments concentrated in certain sectors or industries will be subject to greater volatility and specific risks compared with investing more broadly across many sectors, industries and companies.