Monthly Note

Hello,

At times like this, the easiest question to ask is, why didn’t we see this coming, it’s been all over the news, why didn’t we get out before it was too late? It’s an excellent question, with a tough answer. The best answer I can give is to point back to early 2020, at the very start of the COVID pandemic. I’m sure you all remember that uncertainty defined our existences. In a little over 30 days the SP500 dropped from about 3380 to 2304 shedding about 32% from February to March in 2020. We had no idea how COVID was going to play out. The world economy was shutting down and the future had never been more uncertain. You may also remember an insanity fueled presidential election going on. I was less worried about a “bear-market” and more concerned about an economy existing at all.

Despite all that, in 2020 the SP500 finished up from about 3234 to 3756, about 16%, a blockbuster year. 2021 went on to be another fantastic year of returns. The doomsayers are always pointing to the next collapse, it has been non-stop over the last 9 years I’ve been an advisor. Despite all that, market returns have been fantastic. We have gone through plenty of uncertainty, with non-stop news about the economy being in a “bubble”. As of writing this on June 22nd, the SP500 is still higher now(3786), than it was at its highest point before the 2020 COVID downturn(3234) in March of 2020. It's hard to paint that in a bad light.

The complicated answer to the question above is; if we got out of the market because of bad news, we’d never be in the market. Similarly, when the doomsayers get it right and the market does drop, we can never guess when it’s going to rebound or how quickly. Fear often hits a fever pitch just before it turns around.

I’ll be traveling starting June 24th, returning July 11th. I will still be reachable at my office phone 208-534-7659, which always rings through to my cell. My office manager, Lynn, will be in the office, but without me around it gets slow, she will be leaving at 2pm each day, when the market closes. If you need to drop something by after that, feel free to reach out to her at 208-534-7660. I have no other long trips planned for the rest of the year.

Opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Because of their narrow focus, investments concentrated in certain sectors or industries will be subject to greater volatility and specific risks compared with investing more broadly across many sectors, industries and companies. Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against loss.