Monthly Note

Things are… better. Markets are up and more importantly the story around inflation and the Fed is changing. There is still a long way to go, but at least we’ve started to get there.

Markets are still way down since the start of the year; the S&P 500 is down approximately 19%.  However, over the last month it’s come up about 8%.  Bond markets are still down around 16% which has really hurt portfolios. They will be slower to recover than the stock markets I suspect.

The real news is the potential easing of interest rate hikes by the Fed. There have been some signs that the Fed thinks inflation may be easing and they may not be so aggressive on rate hikes in the future. That, along with an earning season that went about as expected, has caused the markets to rebound a little. The election is coming up and really no matter who gains control of the senate, the markets should view it as favorable. All this adds up to provide a much brighter outlook than we’ve seen all year.

“But what about the recession that is coming?” is the #1 thing I hear from clients right now. The markets are down now because they think there will be a recession in the next 3 to 6 months. There probably will be a recession, but most analysts predict a mild or normal one. Typically… the market drops before the recession and recovers during the recession. If you are concerned, that’s completely normal and I’d love to talk. Call or set an appointment.

There are only 2 months left in 2022 and the holidays will eat up most of that.  If there is anything that you need to do before the end of the year, don’t delay.

Opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Because of their narrow focus, investments concentrated in certain sectors or industries will be subject to greater volatility and specific risks compared with investing more broadly across many sectors, industries and companies.