Monthly Note

November 1, 2023

Winter seems to have arrived in Southeastern Idaho.  We had a very pleasant fall, so I really can’t complain.  I hope everyone is well going into the Holiday Season.

The economy continues to show incredible strength.  3rd quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was estimated at 4.9%, almost double projections.  The labor market continues to put up impressive unemployment and participation rates.  The housing market is holding steady amongst the highest mortgage rates in over 15 years.  The FED has signaled that it is most likely done raising rates, but will likely hold them higher for longer.  Despite all this good news, the stock and bond markets have continued to slip.  I’d like to tell you that “it makes no sense”, but the truth is that the markets never make sense over the short term.  The S&P 500 is still up over the year, but we’ve lost a bit more of the ground that it had been up since August.

The answer over the past few years has not been “more conservative”.  Classically conservative investments like bonds and value stocks have performed just as badly if not worse than traditional growth segments like the S&P 500, especially this year.  I’ve talked with many clients that we were really just waiting for a hint from the Fed that it would stop raising rates, and we seem to have that message now.  The market conditions that we will see over the next 18-36 months will be substantially different than anything we’ve seen recently.  It will be vitally important that we adapt to whatever the new normal becomes.  I suspect conservative investments will make a resurgence, but when and how is very difficult to predict.

I wish I had better news, but this may get a little worse before it starts getting better.  However, good news will come.  Along that line, we have season tickets for the Spud Kings Games a the Mountain America Center.  They are first come, first serve, you can contact Lynn to see which games are available at 208-534-7660 or lynn@tetonwealth.com.  Thank you!

Michael Canavan

LPL Financial Advisor

Canavan Wealth

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Stock investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal.